A Nation at the Crossroads of Climate and Inequality
Few countries illustrate the human cost of overlapping crises more starkly than Pakistan. Ranked among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable nations in the world, Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions yet it is paying one of the highest prices.
Climate disasters are compounding pre-existing poverty, eroding decades of development progress. The 2022 floods, described by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as “a monsoon on steroids,” displaced 8 million people and inundated one-third of the country. Two years later, many of those affected still live without permanent shelter or reliable livelihoods.
According to UNDP estimates, over 40 percent of Pakistan’s population faces multidimensional poverty, and nearly half of those live in areas at high risk from floods, droughts, or heatwaves. As the climate crisis accelerates, these vulnerabilities are deepening, trapping millions in cycles of deprivation and loss.
The Geography of Vulnerability
Pakistan’s diverse geography, stretching from the Himalayan glaciers to the Arabian Sea, exposes it to a range of climate hazards. The northern mountains face glacial melt and flash floods, the Indus plains endure alternating droughts and deluges, and the coastal south grapples with cyclones and sea-level rise.
In Sindh and Balochistan, the poorest provinces, extreme weather events are now routine. When the floods of 2022 came, they destroyed over 2 million homes, submerged entire villages, and washed away 4.4 million acres of crops. For smallholder farmers and sharecroppers, the losses were not temporary they were existential.
“I lost my fields, my cattle, my home everything,” recalls Shazia, a 35-year-old farmer from Dadu, Sindh. “When the water receded, there was nothing left but debt.” Like millions of others, her family now relies on informal work and remittances to survive.
In southern Punjab, recurring heatwaves are testing the limits of human endurance. Temperatures regularly exceed 50°C, disrupting agriculture, drying up canals, and pushing rural laborers toward cities already strained by migration. Meanwhile, in Karachi, urban flooding and extreme heat combine with poor housing conditions to create deadly environments for the city’s poorest residents.
Poverty and Climate: A Reinforcing Loop
Climate change and poverty feed off each other in Pakistan. Poor communities have fewer resources to prepare for or recover from climate shocks. They often live in floodplains or drought-prone areas because land is cheaper, build with inadequate materials, and lack access to credit or insurance.
When disasters hit, their assets, livestock, crops, and small businesses are wiped out. Without social protection, families fall deeper into debt or are forced to migrate. Children drop out of school, health deteriorates, and long-term poverty becomes entrenched.
UNDP’s 2023 analysis of Pakistan’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) reveals how climate vulnerability intersects with deprivation. Districts with the highest poverty rates such as Tharparkar, Umerkot, and Dera Bugti are also among those most exposed to extreme heat and water scarcity. This overlap creates a “double jeopardy” where every climate event pushes communities further behind.
The Gender Dimension
The impacts are not gender-neutral. Across Pakistan, women bear the brunt of climate-induced hardship. They are more likely to lose livelihoods in agriculture, more responsible for water collection, and more vulnerable during displacement.
In flood-affected areas of Sindh, women report increased domestic burdens, heightened food insecurity, and risks of gender-based violence in temporary shelters. Many lost their livestock a key source of income and autonomy. As one woman from Jacobabad shared, “The water took my goats, and with them, my independence.”
Empowering women is therefore central to building resilience. UNDP-supported community organizations in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are training women in climate-smart agriculture, entrepreneurship, and renewable energy. These initiatives are not just improving incomes; they are shifting power dynamics, giving women a voice in decisions that shape their futures.
Urban Poverty on the Frontlines
Pakistan’s cities are also under siege. Urbanization is accelerating, with nearly half the population expected to live in cities by 2030. Yet much of this growth is unplanned. Millions live in informal settlements katchi abadis that lack basic infrastructure, drainage, and secure housing.
In Karachi, torrential rains routinely paralyze the metropolis. The poor, often residing in low-lying or encroached areas along nullahs, lose homes and possessions every monsoon season. In Lahore, worsening air pollution and urban heat disproportionately affect laborers and street vendors, who work outdoors without protection.
Without inclusive urban planning, Pakistan’s cities risk becoming epicenters of climate inequality. UNDP’s Urban Resilience Project in Karachi and Peshawar is helping local governments design data-driven climate adaptation strategies from flood mapping to green infrastructure and early warning systems to safeguard vulnerable populations.
The Cost of Climate Disasters
The economic toll of climate disasters in Pakistan is staggering. The 2022 floods alone caused over US$30 billion in damages and economic losses, according to government and UNDP estimates. Reconstruction needs exceed $16 billion more than the country’s entire annual education budget.
But beyond the visible destruction lies a slower, invisible erosion: of savings, health, and opportunity. Each flood or drought pushes the poor further into debt. Inflation, driven by supply shocks and import costs, compounds the crisis. Rising food prices, particularly of wheat, pulses, and cooking oil hit the poorest families hardest, as food accounts for over 50 percent of their household expenditure.
For many, recovery is not just about rebuilding homes; it’s about regaining dignity and stability in a world where shocks are the new normal.
Climate Finance: A Lifeline Still Out of Reach
Pakistan’s need for climate finance is immense. Yet global mechanisms remain slow and insufficient. Despite being among the countries most affected by climate change, Pakistan receives only a fraction of the adaptation funding it requires.
At COP28, Pakistan called for a “climate justice” framework that recognizes loss and damage as a matter of equity. While the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund was a historic step forward, translating it into tangible support for vulnerable communities will require transparency, speed, and scale.
Domestically, Pakistan is taking steps to strengthen its climate resilience. The National Adaptation Plan (2023–2030), supported by UNDP, outlines pathways for resilient agriculture, water management, and disaster risk reduction. Provincial initiatives, such as Sindh’s Climate Resilient Reconstruction Programme, are mobilizing international partners to rebuild infrastructure with future risks in mind.
However, without predictable, long-term financing, especially for community-led adaptation, progress will remain fragile.
Local Solutions, Lasting Impact
Resilience begins at the local level. Across Pakistan, communities are innovating to adapt to a changing climate.
In Thar Desert, one of the driest regions in South Asia, UNDP-supported initiatives are introducing solar-powered wells that provide reliable water for drinking and irrigation. These projects reduce the burden on women and improve agricultural productivity.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reforestation under the Billion Tree Tsunami initiative has restored degraded ecosystems while creating thousands of green jobs. In Gilgit-Baltistan, community-based glacier monitoring is helping predict and mitigate glacial lake outburst floods a growing threat as glaciers melt faster each year.
These examples show that when local knowledge is combined with institutional support, resilience is not just possible it is transformative.
Data for Action
Understanding where poverty and climate risk overlap is key to targeting solutions. UNDP and Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives are collaborating on a Poverty-Climate Vulnerability Index, mapping hotspots of multidimensional poverty against climate hazards.
Preliminary findings reveal that over 60 percent of Pakistan’s poor live in districts highly exposed to flood or heat risks. Such data can guide investments in infrastructure, health, and education ensuring that adaptation efforts reach those who need them most.
As Knut Ostby, UNDP Resident Representative in Pakistan, notes:
“Climate change is no longer a future threat it is a daily reality for millions of Pakistanis. Our task is to ensure that no one is left behind as the country rebuilds and adapts.”
From Crisis to Resilience
To escape the poverty-climate trap, Pakistan must pursue development that is both inclusive and risk-informed. Three priorities stand out:
| 01 | Expand adaptive social protection. Cash transfer programmes like Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) can integrate climate triggers, automatically scaling up in response to floods or heatwaves. |
| 02 | Invest in green and resilient livelihoods. Renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture, and eco-tourism can create sustainable jobs while reducing environmental degradation. |
| 03 | Strengthen local governance and finance. Decentralized climate funds that empower district and community councils can ensure rapid, context-sensitive responses to disasters. |
These actions align with UNDP’s “Human Development in the Anthropocene” framework, emphasizing that resilience is not only about surviving shocks but about expanding choices and freedoms in an uncertain world.
A Moral and Development Imperative
Pakistan’s story is a warning and a lesson. It shows how climate change magnifies inequality and how resilience can emerge from solidarity and innovation. The challenge ahead is immense, but not insurmountable.
If the international community delivers on its climate finance commitments, if national policies integrate poverty reduction with adaptation, and if communities continue to lead from the front lines, Pakistan can chart a path toward sustainable recovery.
As the floodwaters of 2022 recede, they leave behind not only destruction but determination. From Sindh’s farmers to Gilgit’s glacial guardians, Pakistanis are proving that resilience is not a privilege, it is a right worth fighting for.
